To every CXO steering a telecom operator today, this message comes from a place of respect, concern, and belief in what this industry could still become.

For years, we have repeated the same lines. Telecom is strategic. Telecom is essential. Telecom is resilient. But the market has already delivered its verdict. Telecom is no longer a darling industry. ROIC has eroded. Growth has stalled. Capital intensity remains punishing. Valuations reflect a sector that has lost both its narrative and its appeal.

If you want a real-world signal, look at Telenor, one of the most disciplined and operationally excellent telcos globally. They are exiting markets one by one. This is not coincidence. It is a deliberate capital allocation decision by leaders who understand returns better than most.

Telenor is not fleeing risk.

It is stepping away from a broken economic and financial model weighed down by structural inefficiencies, regulatory burdens, and in some markets, frivolous tax claims and contingent liabilities.

This should concern every leader in the industry.

Telecom has lost its edge

Let’s be honest. The industry’s decline is not just financial. It is structural.

1. Technology differentiation has collapsed

We can debate DRAN, ORAN, vRAN, slicing, edge, and cloud-native architectures endlessly. The truth is simpler. Networks are becoming commoditised.

Performance gaps are narrowing. Vendors are converging. The technology advantage telcos once claimed is now marginal.

2. Skills and capital are flowing into AI, not telecom

The best engineers, the deepest capital pools, and the most ambitious founders are moving into AI. Telecom has become a consumer of innovation, not a creator. This shift in talent and capital gravity is a long-term strategic threat.

3. Complexity is self-inflicted

Layers of legacy systems, platforms, and processes have created operating models that are slow, expensive, and resistant to change. Digital-native players iterate at the speed of software. Telcos do not.

4. Investors have already priced in decline

Valuations reflect an industry structurally incapable of generating returns above its cost of capital. The market is not confused. It is signalling.

5. The telco to techco narrative has failed

Most operators lack the product culture, software DNA, and talent models required to compete with real technology companies. The gap between aspiration and execution continues to widen.

6. The end of the G cycle

The industry’s favourite trick, investing in the next generation and hoping for ARPU uplift, is over. 5G proved it. 6G will not change the economics. Customer willingness to pay has hit its ceiling.

Telcos still touch billions of interactions but control little value

This is a strategic blind spot the industry rarely confronts.

Telcos own access, not attention.

The attention economy belongs to Apple, Google, Meta, TikTok, and super apps. Telcos provide the pipe. Others capture engagement, data, and monetisation.

Data advantage is constrained.

Regulation limits how traffic insights can be monetised. The most valuable levers remain off limits.

Customer interfaces have disappeared.

Operators once controlled portals, messaging, and distribution. Today, operating systems and app ecosystems own the relationship.

The paradox is simple.

Telcos enable the digital economy but no longer participate meaningfully in its value creation.

EBITDA is a comfort metric, not a value metric

For decades, EBITDA growth has been treated as value creation. It is not. EBITDA is deeply misleading for a capital-intensive industry with flat or negative growth.

Here is the reality boards avoid.

In the long run, all costs are variable.

A business that grows EBITDA while destroying ROIC, under-recovering capital, masking inefficiency, and ignoring the cost of capital is not creating value. It is slowly burning it.

The only sensible strategy is to become the smartest dumb pipe

This is where the industry needs a mindset shift.

Telecom will not become the next hyperscaler. That is not failure. That is reality. The winning strategy is not imitation, but clarity.

Connectivity is a utility, no different from electricity or water.

Customers care about two things. It works. It never fails.

A no bells and whistles strategy is not retreat. It is discipline.

It means radical simplification, AI-native operations, agentic automation, relentless cost per bit reduction, extreme network efficiency, zero vanity projects, and no horizontal platforms competing with hyperscalers.

In a utility world, the smartest, lowest-cost, most automated pipe wins.

From there, selectively build high-value B2B solutions where genuine domain advantage exists.

Selective B2B and AI are the real upside

Telcos can win in verticals where connectivity is mission critical and network intelligence creates tangible value. Manufacturing. Logistics. Airlines. Energy. Public safety. Retail. Critical infrastructure.

This requires industry specialists, not generic software teams.

AI and agentic AI are the real transformation engines. They can automate operations, reduce outages, optimise energy, personalise enterprise solutions, and expose network intelligence in new ways.

This is transformation driven by economics, not slogans.

The industry’s choice is clear: build for ROIC or exit

If telecom wants investor confidence back, it must stop optimising for EBITDA and start managing for long-term ROIC.

Capital discipline is no longer optional. It is existential.

The choice facing the industry is stark. Continue chasing tech narratives, platform ambitions, and cosmetic transformation, and watch returns erode further. Or accept a simpler, harder truth.

The operators that survive will be the most efficient and automated connectivity platforms, with selective high-value B2B solutions built only where genuine advantage exists.

Everyone else will consolidate, shrink, or exit.