Analyst studying innovation opportunities in telecoms. Leading a research program for 5G applications

Tanveer Kaur


<p>The journey of the 5G launch in Singapore started back in 2017 when regulator Info comm Media Authority (IMDA) held its first public consultation. IMDA invited responses from various parties, including operators and vendors, as well as information, communication, and satellite service providers. Post extensive evaluation process, IMDA awarded the 5G spectrum for the first time in May 2020.</p>



<p>Singapore operators launched their 5G NSA in 2020. They also launched 5G SA in May 2021. The eventual state of deployments will end up in 5G SA only. Currently, all three operators are either giving free access to the 5G services or charging some additional amount over and above the existing plans to experience 5G services on a trial basis.</p>



<h2><a href="#1-singapore-government-approved-two-nationwide-networks-out-of-three-proposals" aria-hidden="true" class="aal_anchor" id="1-singapore-government-approved-two-nationwide-networks-out-of-three-proposals"></a><strong>1) Singapore government approved two nationwide networks out of three proposals</strong></h2>



<ul><li>Singapore chose to allocate spectrum through a 5G ‘Call for Proposal’ method in 2020. Singtel and the joint venture between ‘StarHub’ and ‘M1’ stood as winners while the fourth player, Australian telco TPG could not capitalise on this opportunity.</li><li>Singtel and the StarHub-M1 joint venture received 100 MHz each in the 3.5 GHz category. The winners of 3.5 GHz have an obligation to complete 50% nationwide coverage by 2022 and full coverage by 2025.</li><li>The regulator also awarded 800 MHz spectrum in the mm-wave category to all three operators, including TPG Telecom. So, as far as 3.5 GHz is concerned, TPG Telecom can become a part of the MVNO list to acquire spectrum through wholesale arrangements.</li></ul>



<p>Table 1 shows the allocation of spectrum to different operators in Singapore</p>



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large is-resized is-style-default"><a href="https://cdn.twimbit.com/uploads/2021/10/21191220/image-28.png" target="_blank" rel="noopener"><img decoding="async" loading="lazy" src="https://cdn.twimbit.com/uploads/2021/10/21191220/image-28.png" alt="" class="wp-image-39492" width="800" height="564" srcset="https://cdn.twimbit.com/uploads/2021/10/21191220/image-28.png 715w, https://cdn.twimbit.com/uploads/2021/10/21191220/image-28-300x211.png 300w, https://cdn.twimbit.com/uploads/2021/10/21191220/image-28-20x14.png 20w" sizes="(max-width: 800px) 100vw, 800px" /></a><figcaption>Source: IMDA</figcaption></figure>



<ul><li>The current spectrum allocations may not be sufficient to accelerate 5G deployments at high capacities. Therefore, the government aims to re-farm the existing spectrum bands. In 2021, IMDA announced an auction of the existing 2.1 GHz spectrum currently being used for 3G services.</li><li>Operators availing 2.1 GHz must provide 50% coverage by 2024 and complete 100% by 2027. Despite availing spectrum in 2.1 GHz, TPG Telecom will remain in a weaker position in the 5G race. TPG Telecom is planning to conduct trials of 5G NSA network in 2021 using a part of its existing 2300 MHz frequency band.</li></ul>



<h2><a href="#2-singapore-government-support-system-encourages-enterprises-to-innovate-and-develop-new-use-cases" aria-hidden="true" class="aal_anchor" id="2-singapore-government-support-system-encourages-enterprises-to-innovate-and-develop-new-use-cases"></a><strong>2) Singapore government support system encourages enterprises to innovate and develop new use cases</strong></h2>



<ul><li>The government of Singapore, with the National Research Foundation, set aside an amount of USD 40 million for supporting the development of the 5G ecosystem. The Singapore government will invest this amount in developing testbeds, thereby enabling 5G trials and other R&amp;D tasks.</li><li>The Singapore government identified six strategic verticals for developing industrial use cases.</li></ul>



<p>Fig 1 shows the six priority verticals in Singapore to leverage 5G</p>



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large is-resized is-style-default"><a href="https://cdn.twimbit.com/uploads/2021/10/21155003/image-16.png" target="_blank" rel="noopener"><img decoding="async" loading="lazy" src="https://cdn.twimbit.com/uploads/2021/10/21155003/image-16.png" alt="5G Singapore strategic clusters for 5G " class="wp-image-39405" width="471" height="418" srcset="https://cdn.twimbit.com/uploads/2021/10/21155003/image-16.png 343w, https://cdn.twimbit.com/uploads/2021/10/21155003/image-16-300x267.png 300w, https://cdn.twimbit.com/uploads/2021/10/21155003/image-16-20x18.png 20w" sizes="(max-width: 471px) 100vw, 471px" /></a><figcaption>Source: IMDA</figcaption></figure>



<p>Table 2 shows some of the major 5G trials in the priority verticals</p>



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large is-resized is-style-default"><a href="https://cdn.twimbit.com/uploads/2021/10/21184432/image-26.png" target="_blank" rel="noopener"><img decoding="async" loading="lazy" src="https://cdn.twimbit.com/uploads/2021/10/21184432/image-26.png" alt="" class="wp-image-39478" width="809" height="731" srcset="https://cdn.twimbit.com/uploads/2021/10/21184432/image-26.png 705w, https://cdn.twimbit.com/uploads/2021/10/21184432/image-26-300x271.png 300w, https://cdn.twimbit.com/uploads/2021/10/21184432/image-26-20x18.png 20w" sizes="(max-width: 809px) 100vw, 809px" /></a><figcaption>Source: IMDA</figcaption></figure>



<p>In addition to the steps above, the Singapore government has been providing multiple reliefs and measures to ease out the regulatory and financial barriers for different stakeholders.</p>



<p>Table 3 shows different reliefs and measures given by the Singapore Government to develop a 5G ecosystem</p>



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large is-resized is-style-default"><a href="https://cdn.twimbit.com/uploads/2021/10/21185137/image-27.png" target="_blank" rel="noopener"><img decoding="async" loading="lazy" src="https://cdn.twimbit.com/uploads/2021/10/21185137/image-27.png" alt="" class="wp-image-39483" width="795" height="716" srcset="https://cdn.twimbit.com/uploads/2021/10/21185137/image-27.png 707w, https://cdn.twimbit.com/uploads/2021/10/21185137/image-27-300x270.png 300w, https://cdn.twimbit.com/uploads/2021/10/21185137/image-27-20x18.png 20w" sizes="(max-width: 795px) 100vw, 795px" /></a><figcaption>Source: IMDA</figcaption></figure>



<h2><a href="#3-5g-subscriber-penetration-in-singapore-to-reach-48-by-2026" aria-hidden="true" class="aal_anchor" id="3-5g-subscriber-penetration-in-singapore-to-reach-48-by-2026"></a><strong>3) 5G subscriber penetration in Singapore to reach 48% by 2026</strong></h2>



<p>Fig 2 shows network technology-wise subscriber mix from 2019-2026</p>



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large is-resized is-style-default"><a href="https://cdn.twimbit.com/uploads/2021/10/22123533/image-37.png" target="_blank" rel="noopener"><img decoding="async" loading="lazy" src="https://cdn.twimbit.com/uploads/2021/10/22123533/image-37.png" alt="" class="wp-image-39527" width="667" height="491" srcset="https://cdn.twimbit.com/uploads/2021/10/22123533/image-37.png 828w, https://cdn.twimbit.com/uploads/2021/10/22123533/image-37-300x221.png 300w, https://cdn.twimbit.com/uploads/2021/10/22123533/image-37-768x566.png 768w, https://cdn.twimbit.com/uploads/2021/10/22123533/image-37-20x15.png 20w" sizes="(max-width: 667px) 100vw, 667px" /></a><figcaption>Source: IMDA, twimbit analysis</figcaption></figure>



<ul><li>5G in Singapore is very nascent, twimbit estimates 5G subscriber penetration to reach 48% by 2026. However, 4G will remain a dominant network technology with a 52% share in the total subscriber mix until 2026.</li></ul>



<ul><li>In the B2C segment, Fixed Wireless Access (FWA), which is one of the potential early use cases of 5G, may not be very significant for the Singapore region, given that <strong>90% of the broadband penetration is fiberised, offering speeds as high as 1Gbps.</strong></li></ul>



<ul><li>Singtel will remain a dominant player in terms of the number of 5G subscribers, considering its pace of 5G deployments. It has covered a total of 1000 locations which is equivalent to two-thirds of Singapore.</li></ul>



<ul><li>To boost the 5G adoption, Singtel has come up with plans where customers can have additional 5G data to take a trial of 5G services. M1 is also offering booster plans. These plans are available at a minimal cost over and above the regular plans to access 5G services.</li></ul>



<h2><a href="#4-building-singapores-first-active-sharing-network-for-standalone-5g-starhub-and-m1" aria-hidden="true" class="aal_anchor" id="4-building-singapores-first-active-sharing-network-for-standalone-5g-starhub-and-m1"></a><strong>4) Building Singapore’s first active sharing network for standalone 5G &#8211; Starhub and M1</strong></h2>



<p>5G infrastructure build-out is an expensive process. Therefore, active network sharing can help operators achieve resource optimisation. StarHub and M1 formed a joint venture called Antina Pte Ltd. They selected Nokia as a vendor for deploying Singapore’s first 5G SA RAN sharing network. Nokia is also chosen as a vendor for StarHub’s core network.</p>



<p>Some of the highlights of network sharing arrangement between StarHub and M1:</p>



<ul><li><strong>Multiple Operator Core Network (MOCN) &#8211;</strong>The operators will have their own core networks, service platforms, and BSS.</li><li>The operators agreed to share all their 5G OPEX/CAPEX and profits associated with 5G in a <strong>50:50 ratio.</strong></li><li>The management structure of both the service providers would remain independent</li></ul>



<p>Nokia will provide equipment from its comprehensive AirScale portfolio and CloudRAN solution to build the Radio Access Network (RAN) for the 5G SA infrastructure, utilising the 3.5GHz spectrum band. The vendor will also supply 5G base stations and its small cells solution for indoor coverage, as well as other RAN-related products.</p>



<h2><a href="#5-singapore-mobile-service-revenue-to-grow-at-a-cagr-of-0-73" aria-hidden="true" class="aal_anchor" id="5-singapore-mobile-service-revenue-to-grow-at-a-cagr-of-0-73"></a><strong>5) Singapore mobile service revenue to grow at a CAGR of 0.73%</strong></h2>



<p>    Fig 3 shows mobile services revenue trend from 2020-2025:</p>



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large is-style-default"><a href="https://cdn.twimbit.com/uploads/2021/10/22124339/image-42.png" target="_blank" rel="noopener"><img decoding="async" loading="lazy" width="828" height="605" src="https://cdn.twimbit.com/uploads/2021/10/22124339/image-42.png" alt="" class="wp-image-39535" srcset="https://cdn.twimbit.com/uploads/2021/10/22124339/image-42.png 828w, https://cdn.twimbit.com/uploads/2021/10/22124339/image-42-300x219.png 300w, https://cdn.twimbit.com/uploads/2021/10/22124339/image-42-768x561.png 768w, https://cdn.twimbit.com/uploads/2021/10/22124339/image-42-20x15.png 20w" sizes="(max-width: 828px) 100vw, 828px" /></a><figcaption>Source: twimbit analysis</figcaption></figure>



<p>Singapore’s telecommunication market has become even more competitive and mature ever since the entry of the Australian telco TPG Telecom. Considerable price competition has had an impact on the profitability of major telcos in the country. In 2017, the industry witnessed a decrease of 14% in its mobile service revenue. Mobile services revenue has continued to decline over the years and in H12021, it was estimated at 10%.</p>



<ol><li>With the launch of 5G, we do not expect much traction in mobile service revenue unless there is an introduction of more 5G-enabled use cases along with the migration of subscribers to 5G devices.  twimbit expects <strong>mobile service revenue to grow at a CAGR of 0.73% for the period 2020-2026.</strong></li><li>The mobile service revenue growth would depend on the operators’ ability to differentiate and charge higher a premium for 5G services.  Differentiation and innovation are primary factors that contribute to 5G revenue monetisation.</li><li>Partnership models are inevitable for innovation. Singtel and other operators are entering into multiple collaborations, creating new 5G-enabled use cases.<ul><li>Singtel has classified consumer applications into three categories; live, work and play. Singtel partnered with S.E.A. Aquarium to test Singapore’s first underwater live streaming experience. It is also capitalising on the upcoming hybrid work culture by collaborating with companies like Samsung and Zoom. Singtel also partnered with Formula Square to deliver an immersive racing experience.</li><li>StarHub is testing a cloud gaming service in partnership with Ge-Force Now. Ge-Force Now is successfully being bundled with 5G plans by LG Uplus in <a href="https://twimbit.com/insights/5g-developments-in-south-korea" class="rank-math-link">South Korea.</a></li></ul></li><li>There is immense opportunity for Singapore telcos in B2B. <a href="https://www.southeast-asia.kearney.com/article/?/a/5g-in-asean-reigniting-growth-in-enterprise-and-consumer-markets" class="rank-math-link"><strong>According to an AT Kearney report, the total </strong>5G potential in the B2B segment will reach USD 175-200 million by 2025. </a></li></ol>



<h2><a href="#6-singapore-is-expected-to-invest-a-sum-of-usd-800-million-in-5g-by-2024" aria-hidden="true" class="aal_anchor" id="6-singapore-is-expected-to-invest-a-sum-of-usd-800-million-in-5g-by-2024"></a><strong>6) Singapore is expected to invest a sum of USD 800 million in 5G by 202</strong>4</h2>



<p>Fig 4 shows 5G capital expenditure by operators in Singapore from 2020-2024*</p>



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large is-resized is-style-default"><a href="https://cdn.twimbit.com/uploads/2021/10/22191633/image-51.png" target="_blank" rel="noopener"><img decoding="async" loading="lazy" src="https://cdn.twimbit.com/uploads/2021/10/22191633/image-51.png" alt="" class="wp-image-39644" width="794" height="436" srcset="https://cdn.twimbit.com/uploads/2021/10/22191633/image-51.png 452w, https://cdn.twimbit.com/uploads/2021/10/22191633/image-51-300x165.png 300w, https://cdn.twimbit.com/uploads/2021/10/22191633/image-51-20x11.png 20w" sizes="(max-width: 794px) 100vw, 794px" /></a><figcaption>Source: twimbit analysis, *- Minimum CAPEX investments to meet IMDA&#8217;s 5G rollout obligations in 3.5 GHz band</figcaption></figure>



<ul><li>StarHub announced an investment of SGD 200 million (USD 146 million) in 5G networks. The investment amount is staggered over five years. M1 and Starhub agreed to invest and share profits in a 50:50 ratio, and we believe that M1 will spend an equal amount of USD 146 million for the next five years.</li><li>The total 5G CAPEX in Singapore would touch a total amount of USD 0.8 billion by 2024.</li><li>Singtel will account for an estimated 65% of the total 5G CAPEX, while the joint venture companies will collectively invest the remaining portion.</li><li>As of 2021, most 5G deployments in the country have taken place for outdoor locations; operators would ramp up their efforts towards indoor coverage as well.</li><li>Due to the obligation to accomplish 50% nationwide 5G SA network coverage by 2022, the 5G investments would pick up in 2021 and peak in 2022 to further achieve 95% target by 2024 and 2025 for Singtel and Joint Venture Co. respectively.</li></ul>



<p>Fig 5 shows various coverage targets for three incumbent players in Singapore</p>



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large is-style-default"><a href="https://cdn.twimbit.com/uploads/2021/10/22124002/image-41.png" target="_blank" rel="noopener"><img decoding="async" loading="lazy" width="869" height="524" src="https://cdn.twimbit.com/uploads/2021/10/22124002/image-41.png" alt="" class="wp-image-39532" srcset="https://cdn.twimbit.com/uploads/2021/10/22124002/image-41.png 869w, https://cdn.twimbit.com/uploads/2021/10/22124002/image-41-300x181.png 300w, https://cdn.twimbit.com/uploads/2021/10/22124002/image-41-768x463.png 768w, https://cdn.twimbit.com/uploads/2021/10/22124002/image-41-20x12.png 20w" sizes="(max-width: 869px) 100vw, 869px" /></a><figcaption>Source: IMDA</figcaption></figure>


The journey of the 5G launch in Singapore started back in 2017 when regulator Info comm Media Authority (IMDA) held its first public consultation. IMDA invited responses from various parties,...