With Trump back on the political stage and likely heading to the White House, his stance on artificial intelligence (AI) could mark a clear departure from Biden’s focus on ensuring safe, secure, and ethical development and use of AI. For Trump, AI isn’t just a tool that should be kept under wraps—it's a competitive advantage against global rivals like China. This means we might see a big push for innovation over heavy-handed rules.

Rolling Back Biden's AI Playbook

One of Trump’s first targets? It could be Biden's AI Executive Order from October 2023. This order had put voluntary guidelines in place for companies developing AI, asking them to share details on their training methods and security practices. The idea was to make AI safer, but critics (including Trump’s camp) argued it could stifle innovation by forcing companies to spill their secrets and spend resources on compliance.

Expect Trump to alter this approach, aiming to keep the industry safe but free to innovate without the red tape.

Less Regulation, More Innovation

Under Trump, the focus will likely shift towards a "hands-off" policy. Think back to his first term, when he:

• Set up national AI research hubs

• Pushed government bodies to prioritize AI research

• Advocated for developing "trustworthy" AI tech

• Emphasized civil liberties and privacy protections in his American AI Initiative

Instead of piling on new rules, Trump's potential plan will probably rely on existing laws and let market forces guide AI's growth. It’s a strategy favoured by his trustworthy allies, like J.D. Vance, who argue that over-regulation could help U.S Big Tech cement its monopoly rather than break it.

Eyeing China: The Main Rival

For Trump, the big picture revolves around outpacing China in the AI race. His strategy may include:

• Tighter export controls on high-tech chips

• Closing loopholes that let Chinese companies access advanced AI tools through global cloud services

• Cracking down on tech transfers (i.e., talent, data, open-source models) that could give China an edge

But there’s a tricky balance here—open-source AI is a hit among tech enthusiasts, yet poses security risks, especially when Chinese firms get their hands on U.S. tech like Meta’s Llama model. Trump will need to navigate these waters carefully.

Will Trump Play Hardball or Make Deals?

While Trump talks tough on China, his deal-making side might come into play. Remember his 2018 ZTE deal? Trump eased sanctions on the Chinese tech giant in exchange for fines and stricter oversight, though it was part of larger trade negotiations. We could see similar trade-offs in the AI space—using strategic compromises to manage relations without giving too much ground.

What's Ahead for the Tech Industry?

If Trump follows this path, here’s what might happen:

• A surge in investments for building AI infrastructure, data centres, and semiconductor manufacturing

• Less regulatory pressure on AI startups and tech giants

• Continued support for the CHIPS Act to boost U.S. semiconductor production

• Debates over open-source AI and its implications for national security

The Advisory Tug-of-War

Trump’s approach could also be shaped by the voices in his ear. On one side, you have advocates like Peter Thiel and J.D. Vance pushing for minimal regulation. On the other, figures like Elon Musk might caution about the risks of unchecked AI growth, nudging Trump towards a more balanced stance.

The Rise of State-Level Regulation

If Trump rolls back federal oversight, we could see more states taking action on their own, especially Democrat-led ones. States like California and Colorado have already started crafting their own AI rules, and this trend might accelerate if the federal government steps back.

In a rapidly evolving AI landscape, Trump’s administration will face a tough balancing act: keeping the U.S. at the cutting edge of AI innovation while guarding against real security threats. The focus will likely be on driving competitiveness, even if it means leaving broad regulations by the wayside

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